Problem #1 (a) Likelihood function L(x1, x2, .., xn, theta) = Product(i = 1,2,..n)f(x, theta) = Product(i = 1,2,.,n) (theta / (x_i^(theta+1)) Take Logarithm on both sides and partially differentiate this with respect to theta and set it equal to zero, you will get theta = n / (sum(i = 1,2,.,n)ln(x_i)) For the 6 values given in the problem, theta = 0.397 ------ (b) H = 0.2V ==> V = 5H absolute(dV/dH) = |Jacobian| =5 Cv = 0.15 = sigma_v / mu_v; mu_v = 80 (given in the problem) Using equations 4-22, theta_v = 4.37 and omega_v = 0.15 V ~ log Normal (theta_, omega_v) Using the Method to obtain the PDF of function of random variable (Equation 5-41) you can find the PDF of H f(h) ~ log Normal(theta_v - ln(5); omega_v) = log Normal(2.761, 0.15) -------------- (c) The height of the dike for a 5% risk is the value such that area under the pdf f(h) below that value is 0.95 To get this value qlnorm(0.95, 2.761, 0.15) = 20.24ft ------------