1. (a) f(r) = k * (r-10)*(20-4) 10 < r < 20 For f(r) to be a PDF Integrate(from 10 to 20) f(r) dr = 1 Solve for k, gives, k = 3/500 -- (b) Median value xm is the value such that the area under the PDF until xm is equal to 0.5 (the definition of Median) Integrate(from 10 to xm)f(r) = 0.5 solve for xm, gives xm = 15 ------ (c) Mean number of rainstorms in a year for the city is = sum(i = 0,1,2,3)x_i * P(x_i) x_i = 0,1,2,3 P(x_i) = 0.3, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1 Th Mean number of rainstorms = 1.1 -------- (d) The maximum runoff rate is given as Log Normal with a median of 7cfs and coefficient of variation Cv = 0.15 Equation 4-22 (Log Normal) omega = 0.15, theta = ln(7) = 1.946 f(flow) ~ Log Normal (omega = 0.15, theta=1.946) Flooding occurrs when the flow rate exceeds 8cfs. Probability of flooding during a storm = 1 - Integrate(0 to 8)f(flow) 1 - qlnorm(8, 1,946, 0.15) = 0.187 --------------- (e) Rate of typeI tornadoes = 9/18 = 0.5 / year Rate of typeII tornadoes = 54/18 = 3/year N1 = # of type I tornadoes N2 = # of type II tornadoes P(two tornadoes in a year) = P(N1=1 and N2=1) + P(N1=2 and N2=0) + P(N1=0 and N2=2) N1 and N2 are independent so the joint probabilities are equal to their products P(a typeI tornadoe) = P(N1=1) = exp(-0.5) * (0.5)^1 / 1! P(two typeI tornadoes) = P(N1=2) = exp(-0.5) * (0.5)^2 / 2! and so on.. Doing the algebra you get, P(two tornadoes in a year) = 0.185 ---------- (f) Probability of ATLEAST 1 tornado of typeI in the next 5 years = 1- P(NONE of the typeI tornadoes in the 5 years) = 1 - (1 - P(a typeI tornado in a year))^5 ---------