From: Lindseyrobinson@aol.com
Sent: Friday, January 16, 2004 4:16 AM
To: amadei@colorado.edu
Subject: Population-could we publish this clip on your website?
Lindsey Robinson
Engineers Without Borders
Excerpts from CU’s Conference on World Population

"The world’s population has now reached 6.3 billion people and projections estimate that every  12 years the population will add another billion people. At the current rate, there is another 80 million people being added to the population annually where 97 percent of the growth happens in less developed worlds like Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and Oceania, where the current population is estimated to have reached 4.9 billion," said Werner Fornos, president of Population Institute, and 2003 winner of the UN Population Award.

Fornos argues the age has dropped dramatically too, where people under the age of 25 are expected to reach 3 billion by the year 2030, with more than a billion teenagers now entering reproductive years. "World growth projections estimate that one-half of the growth will be in Asia and one-third of the growth will be in Africa that currently accounts for 13 percent of world  population". Fornos said the African sub-continent is the fastest growing region worldwide with the highest fertility rate doubling its population in 25 years.

Fornos projects that less developed countries average 3.1 children during their lifetimes and that factors such as education levels and access to reproductive health care services including contraceptive methods significantly impact a lower birthrates. "Unfortunately about 350 million families in the third world do not have family planning programs including contraception or family planning and one billion people have no access to health care," said Fornos.

Fornos argues that eight million infants under the age of one will die this year because their mothers could not prevent longer periods between pregnancies. He added that more than 600,000 women die every year because of complications from pregnancy and abortions, and in part because 2.4 billion people live without adequate sanitation. He added at least 75 million pregnancies each year out of 175 million are unplanned resulting in 45 million abortions and more than 30 million live births. Fornos estimated that 340 million new cases of sexually transmitted diseases occur each year. Each day 6,000 young people are infected with HIV/AIGDS, where the disease infects women five times more than men.

Indeed, Fornos  argues that more than 3 billion people live in absolute poverty subsisting on less than $2 a day. He adds an estimated 600 million poor urban residents in less developed countries live in life and health threatening conditions where 86 countries are unable to grow or buy enough food to feed their countries and 800 million people are malnourished.

Fornos explains the vicious cycles between poverty, starvation and unemployment, where unemployment in the development world is reaching 30 percent or higher, where 120 million people are looking for work and 700 million people are considered underemployed. Where in 1950 only one city in the first world had a population exceeding 5 million, by the year 2000 there will be 46 cites or more.

And the environment is under constant threat. "Where almost half the forests that originally covered the Earth have been cleared, fragmented or degraded, more than 600,000 square miles of forests have been cut down in the last decade, while 26 billion tons or arable topsoil have vanished from the world’s cropland every year," said Fornos.

Fornos claims the climate change is disrupting weather patterns, causing more severe droughts and flooding affecting the health of people worldwide. He adds that women living in poverty in developing countries has increased by almost 50 percent over the last 20 years to 565 million, and that at least 1.1 billion people or nearly 25 percent of the of the world lack adequate supplies of drinking water.

According to Popline, the World Population News Service’s September/October 2003 issue, Fornos said, "In the past century the world’s population has tripled, but water usage has increased six times over. Aquifers are being over pumped in the world’s largest food producing countries including the US and within the next few years water tables may have fallen so much that China’s will be virtually dependent on imported grain to feeds its people. It is estimated that by 2025 some 2.4 million or 30 percent of the planet’s population will face water shortages. Thirty percent of the world‘s population may expect water shortages by 2025," said Fornos.

Fornos said currently, 1.2 billion people do not have access to safe water and 2.3 million lack adequate sanitation greatly increasing the risk and prevalence of communicable diseases. "Five to seven million people die from water-related diseases each year, including 2.2 million children under the age of five.

In Popline’s  July/Aug 2003 issue addressing a South Asia Water Supply, John Chilton a co-author of the report claims that groundwater levels are declining as much as 10 feet a year across Africa, Asia, Central and South America largely due to intensive irrigation according a report by the UNEP-UN Environmental Program. that as aquifers subside, seawater seeps into the water table in coastal areas making the water undrinkable. The result is that ground water is sinking in major cities such as Bangkok and Mexico City and small farmers will be forced out of business.

The report adds that water tables are falling most rapidly in Mexico, South Asian and semi arid countries that rely heavily on irrigation, "some two billion people and as much as 40 percent of agriculture are at least partly reliant on these hidden stores" according Klaus Toepfer, executive director of UNEP.

According to Popline columnist Paul Micou, China as 1.3 billion of the world’ 6.3 billion people but only 7 percent of the world’s land area.  Micou argues that the Bush administration has killed the UNFPA, the UN Population Fund’s $500 million contribution arguing it is a code for promoting abortion. Rescinding $34 million that Congress has appropriated, "the cut represented 12.5 percent of the UNFPA’s annual $270 million budget. That would have help prevent 2 million unwanted pregnancies, 800,00 induced abortion s, 4,700 maternal deaths, nearly 60,00 cases of serious maternal illness and more than 77,000 infant and child deaths," said Micou. With access to family planning services, abortion rates decline, women choose to have fewer children and popular growth slows, adds Micou arguing funding adds to solving a global problem.

Micou says that one person in three is younger than 15 in the developing world and more than half are 25 or younger. "Their reproductive choices will determine the future for all of us.  If fertility rates remain at today’s levels world population will double by 2050 to 12.6 billion people," said Micou.  Still he adds that women in the developing world are having half as many  children as women did 40 ears ago, down from six in 1960 to three today. Still aggregate competition over water, food, jobs and education will only increase causing more unrest immigration political turmoil, fostering desperate measures and terrorism.

Fornos says 90 percent of the world’s water is salt water 2 percent is frozen and 1 percent is left for human use, industrial and agricultural use. "There is no substitute. 70 percent of our bodies are made of water. The world population is now reaching 6.3 billion people, where America represents about 4 percent of the world’s population, yet consumes 30 percent of its resources. While the world’s global forests are declining, its global deserts are increasing and its global climate is increasing to record temperatures creating resource shortages in food and a water crisis.  In Turkey they are building a dam between the Tigris and the Euphrates thinking they can create an agricultural Babylon- This would cut off Syria and Iraq from water and creating a major conflict, and environmental destruction possibly war," said Fornos .   

Fornos said deforestation has ruined forest cutting 600,000 square miles of hardwood forests lumber replacing it with far inferior scrub and pine instead of oak in the tropical rain forests ruining the bio diversity  cutting nearly 50 percent  of the tropical forest in three countries in Indonesia, Brazil and the Congo where 70 percent of the population depends on wood for fuel..

The world has lost 26 billion tons of  top soil where the wind has blown it away where farming and urbanization has further deteriorated the topsoil. One half of the population has moved into cities where cities take up 2 percent of the land yet take up 75 percent of the resources and has created 75 percent of the trash. Farm land has been converted into urban land and the US has reduced one million acres of farm land. The US population is 600 million population and expects to have another 291 million immigrants by the year 2100.

One half the world population lives on les than $2 a day. Changing the face of urbanization the top 10 cities now include New York and Los Angeles. Two-thirds of the world population now live in cities. By 2040 industrialized  cities will include not just Tokyo, but Bombay, where already an estimated 6M homeless live- mass rural living problems of fresh water over ploughing urban industrialization, inner cities moving  of poor into cities. -projections anticipate that this new generation 1billion people will be  the 15-24 year old.

This generation farming  marginalization of farmers in countries like Nepal-topsoil erosion is expected to double within the next 30 years from water  erosion in India to Bangladesh where families 20 years ago had 9 kids now have 4.2 kids.  And marginalized farmers in Rio de Janeiro poverty homes caused 8000 died from homes sliding into hill side. And dust bowels entering desserts to China are no longer stopped by forests where sand storms in Korea to Japan now are crossing the Pacific ocean to  Washington to California.

Rapid desertification across Africa where there is now 840 million people where by the year 2020 the population is expected to reach 1.3 billion and by 2050 the populations expected to reach 1.7 billion. The Desert is increasing by six square miles per year. And the farm and deforestation are ruining the top soil not able to stop the winds that cross the oceans and hit America in the form of tornados and hurricanes hitting the Atlantic East coast like hurricane Isabel and now Trisha. By 2010, 11-15 hurricanes will hit the East coast and the Caribbean hitting central America, because there will no longer be forest to stop them in Africa.

The FAO the Food Agriculture Organization claims 80 countries cannot feed their population cannot now reaching more than 800 million people. With a global population of 6.3 billion people the death rate is declining. In 1917 only 30 million people lived over 65, today 30 million people live over 65, and by 2010, 100 million are expected to live past 65 years old thanks to medical breakthroughs, and increased sanitation.

Fornos argues that the five key elements to population stabilization include eradicating illiteracy, paid employment opportunities for women, reduction of infant mortality, male responsibility and universal access of family planning. If you want to find out more about the Global Forum and the International Conference on Population and Development please contact Missy Kurek, Population 2005 at 202-544-3300 or email her at mkurek@populationinstitute.org
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